Evaluating the Environmental Sustainability of Alternative Ways to Produce Benzene, Toluene, and Xylene.

The petrochemical industry can reduce its environmental impacts by moving from fossil resources to alternative carbon feedstocks. Biomass and plastic waste-based production pathways have recently been developed for benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX). This study evaluates the environmental impacts of these novel BTX pathways at a commercial and future (2050) scale, combining traditional life cycle assessment with absolute environmental sustainability assessment using the planetary boundary concept. We show that plastic waste-based BTX has lower environmental impacts than fossil BTX, including a 12% decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Biomass-based BTX shows greater GHG emission reductions (42%), but it causes increased freshwater consumption and eutrophication. Toward 2050, GHG emission reductions become 75 and 107% for plastic waste and biobased production, respectively, compared to current fossil-BTX production. When comparing alternative uses of plastic waste, BTX production has larger climate benefits than waste incineration with energy recovery with a GHG benefit of 1.1 kg CO2-equiv/kg plastic waste. For biomass (glycerol)-based BTX production, other uses of glycerol are favorable over BTX production. While alternative BTX production pathways can decrease environmental impacts, they still transgress multiple planetary boundaries. Further impact reduction efforts are thus required, such as using other types of (waste) biomass, increasing carbon recycling, and abatement of end-of-life emissions.

Environmental drivers of global variation in home range size of terrestrial and marine mammals.

As animal home range size (HRS) provides valuable information for species conservation, it is important to understand the driving factors of HRS variation. It is widely known that differences in species traits (e.g. body mass) are major contributors to variation in mammal HRS. However, most studies examining how environmental variation explains mammal HRS variation have been limited to a few species, or only included a single (mean) HRS estimate for the majority of species, neglecting intraspecific HRS variation. Additionally, most studies examining environmental drivers of HRS variation included only terrestrial species, neglecting marine species. Using a novel dataset of 2800 HRS estimates from 586 terrestrial and 27 marine mammal species, we quantified the relationships between HRS and environmental variables, accounting for species traits. Our results indicate that terrestrial mammal HRS was on average 5.3 times larger in areas with low human disturbance (human footprint index [HFI] = 0), compared to areas with maximum human disturbance (HFI = 50). Similarly, HRS was on average 5.4 times larger in areas with low annual mean productivity (NDVI = 0), compared to areas with high productivity (NDVI = 1). In addition, HRS increased by a factor of 1.9 on average from low to high seasonality in productivity (standard deviation (SD) of monthly NDVI from 0 to 0.36). Of these environmental variables, human disturbance and annual mean productivity explained a larger proportion of HRS variance than seasonality in productivity. Marine mammal HRS decreased, on average, by a factor of 3.7 per 10°C decline in annual mean sea surface temperature (SST), and increased by a factor of 1.5 per 1°C increase in SST seasonality (SD of monthly values). Annual mean SST explained more variance in HRS than SST seasonality. Due to the small sample size, caution should be taken when interpreting the marine mammal results. Our results indicate that environmental variation is relevant for HRS and that future environmental changes might alter the HRS of individuals, with potential consequences for ecosystem functioning and the effectiveness of conservation actions.

What Is the Impact of Accidentally Transporting Terrestrial Alien Species? A New Life Cycle Impact Assessment Model.

Alien species form one of the main threats to global biodiversity. Although Life Cycle Assessment attempts to holistically assess environmental impacts of products and services across value chains, ecological impacts of the introduction of alien species are so far not assessed in Life Cycle Impact Assessment. Here, we developed country-to-country-specific characterization factors, expressed as the time-integrated potentially disappeared fraction (PDF; regional and global) of native terrestrial species due to alien species introductions per unit of goods transported [kg] between two countries. The characterization factors were generated by analyzing global data on first records of alien species, native species distributions, and their threat status, as well as bilateral trade partnerships from 1870-2019. The resulting characterization factors vary over several orders of magnitude, indicating that impact greatly varies per transportation route and trading partner. We showcase the applicability and relevance of the characterization factors for transporting 1 metric ton of freight to France from China, South Africa, and Madagascar. The results suggest that the introduction of alien species can be more damaging for terrestrial biodiversity as climate change impacts during the international transport of commodities.

Effects of nutrient enrichment on freshwater macrophyte and invertebrate abundance: A meta-analysis.

External nutrient loading can cause large changes in freshwater ecosystems. Many local field and laboratory experiments have investigated ecological responses to nutrient addition. However, these findings are difficult to generalize, as the responses observed may depend on the local context and the resulting nutrient concentrations in the receiving water bodies. In this research, we combined and analysed data from 131 experimental studies containing 3054 treatment-control abundance ratios to assess the responses of freshwater taxa along a gradient of elevated nutrient concentrations. We carried out a systematic literature search in order to identify studies that report the abundance of invertebrate, macrophyte, and fish taxa in relation to the addition of nitrogen, phosphorus, or both. Next, we established mixed-effect meta-regression models to relate the biotic responses to the concentration gradients of both nutrients. We quantified the responses based on various abundance-based metrics. We found no responses to the mere addition of nutrients, apart from an overall increase of total invertebrate abundance. However, when we considered the gradients of N and P enrichment, we found responses to both nutrients for all abundance metrics. Abundance tended to increase at low levels of N enrichment, yet decreased at the high end of the concentration gradient (1-10 mg/L, depending on the P concentration). Responses to increasing P concentrations were mostly positive. For fish, we found too few data to perform a meaningful analysis. The results of our research highlight the need to consider the level of nutrient enrichment rather than the mere addition of nutrients in order to better understand broad-scale responses of freshwater biota to eutrophication, as a key step to identify effective conservation strategies for freshwater ecosystems.

Impacts of existing and planned roads on terrestrial mammal habitat in New Guinea.

New Guinea is one of the last regions in the world with vast pristine areas and is home to many endemic species. However, extensive road development plans threaten the island's biodiversity. We quantified habitat fragmentation due to existing and planned roads for 139 terrestrial mammal species in New Guinea. For each species, we calculated the equivalent connected area (ECA) of habitat, a metric that takes into account the area and connectivity of habitat patches in 3 situations: no roads (baseline situation), existing roads (current), and existing and planned roads combined (future). We assessed the effect of roads as the proportion of the ECA remaining in the current and future situations relative to the baseline. To examine whether there were patterns in these relative ECA values, we fitted beta-regression models relating these values to 4 species characteristics: taxonomic order, body mass, diet, and International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List status. On average across species, current ECA was 89% (SD 12) of baseline ECA. Shawmayer's coccymys (Coccymys shawmayeri) had the lowest amount of current ECA relative to the baseline (53%). In the future situation, the average remaining ECA was 71% (SD 20) of baseline ECA. Future remaining ECA was below 50% of the baseline for 28 species. The montane soft-furred paramelomys (Paramelomys mollis) had the lowest future ECA relative to the baseline (36%). In general, currently nonthreatened carnivorous species with a large body mass had the greatest reductions of ECA in the future situation. In conclusion, future road development plans imply extensive additional habitat fragmentation for a large number of terrestrial mammal species in New Guinea. It is therefore important to limit the impact of planned roads, for example, by reconsidering the location of planned roads that intersect habitat of the most threatened species, or by the implementation of mitigation measures such as underpasses.

Impacto de las carreteras planeadas y existentes sobre el hábitat de mamíferos terrestres en Nueva Guinea Resumen Nueva Guinea es una de las últimas regiones del mundo con zonas vírgenes extensas que alberga muchas especies endémicas. Sin embargo, los planes extensivos de desarrollo de carreteras amenazan la biodiversidad de la isla. Cuantificamos la fragmentación del hábitat causada por las carreteras existentes y previstas para 139 especies de mamíferos terrestres de Nueva Guinea. Para cada especie, calculamos el área conectada equivalente (ACE) del hábitat, una medida que considera el área y la conectividad de los fragmentos de hábitat en tres situaciones: sin carreteras (situación de referencia), carreteras existentes (actual) y la combinación de carreteras existentes y previstas (futuro). Evaluamos el efecto de las carreteras como la proporción de ACE que quedaba en las situaciones actual y futura en relación con la situación de referencia. Para examinar si existían patrones en estos valores relativos de ECA, ajustamos modelos de regresión beta relacionando estos valores con cuatro características de las especies: orden taxonómico, masa corporal, dieta y estado en la Lista Roja de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza. En promedio para todas las especies, la ACE actual fue 89% (DE 12) de la ACE basal. La especie Coccymys shawmayeri presentó la menor cantidad de ACE actual en relación con la base de referencia (53%). En la situación futura, la media de ACE restante fue del 71% (DE 20) de la ACE de referencia. La ACE restante futura fue inferior al 50% de la línea de base para 28 especies. La especie Paramelomys mollis tuvo la ACE futura más baja en relación con la línea base (36%). En general, las especies carnívoras que no están amenazadas actualmente y tienen una masa corporal grande tuvieron la mayor reducción de ACE en la situación futura. Para concluir, la futura construcción de carreteras implica una extensa fragmentación de hábitat adicional para un gran número de especies de mamíferos terrestres en Nueva Guinea. Por esto es importante limitar el impacto de las carreteras planeadas, por ejemplo, reconsiderando la ubicación de las carreteras que cruzan el hábitat de las especies más amenazadas o implementando medidas de mitigación como los pasos subterráneos.

The potential of emerging bio-based products to reduce environmental impacts.

The current debate on the sustainability of bio-based products questions the environmental benefits of replacing fossil- by bio-resources. Here, we analyze the environmental trade-offs of 98 emerging bio-based materials compared to their fossil counterparts, reported in 130 studies. Although greenhouse gas life cycle emissions for emerging bio-based products are on average 45% lower (-52 to -37%; 95% confidence interval), we found a large variation between individual bio-based products with none of them reaching net-zero emissions. Grouped in product categories, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions ranged from 19% (-52 to 35%) for bioadhesives to 73% (-84 to -54%) for biorefinery products. In terms of other environmental impacts, we found evidence for an increase in eutrophication (369%; 163 to 737%), indicating that environmental trade-offs should not be overlooked. Our findings imply that the environmental sustainability of bio-based products should be evaluated on an individual product basis and that more radical product developments are required to reach climate-neutral targets.

Land use diversification may mitigate on-site land use impacts on mammal populations and assemblages.

Land use is a major cause of biodiversity decline worldwide. Agricultural and forestry diversification measures, such as the inclusion of natural elements or diversified crop types, may reduce impacts on biodiversity. However, the extent to which such measures may compensate for the negative impacts of land use remains unknown. To fill that gap, we synthesised data from 99 studies that recorded mammal populations or assemblages in natural reference sites and in cropland and forest plantations, with or without diversification measures. We quantified the responses to diversification measures based on individual species abundance, species richness and assemblage intactness as quantified by the mean species abundance indicator. In cropland with natural elements, mammal species abundance and richness were, on average, similar to natural conditions, while in cropland without natural elements they were reduced by 28% and 34%, respectively. We found that mammal species richness was comparable between diversified forest plantations and natural reference sites, and 32% lower in plantations without natural elements. In both cropland and plantations, assemblage intactness was reduced compared with natural reference conditions, but the reduction was smaller if diversification measures were in place. In addition, we found that responses to land use were modified by species traits and environmental context. While habitat specialist populations were reduced in cropland without diversification and in forest plantations, habitat generalists benefited. Furthermore, assemblages were impacted more by land use in tropical regions and landscapes containing a larger share of (semi)natural habitat compared with temperate regions and more converted landscapes. Given that mammal assemblage intactness is reduced also when diversification measures are in place, special attention should be directed to species that suffer from land use impacts. That said, our results suggest potential for reconciling land use and mammal conservation, provided that the diversification measures do not compromise yield.

Context-dependent responses of terrestrial invertebrates to anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment: A meta-analysis.

Anthropogenic increases in nitrogen (N) concentrations in the environment are affecting plant diversity and ecosystems worldwide, but relatively little is known about N impacts on terrestrial invertebrate communities. Here, we performed an exploratory meta-analysis of 4365 observations from 126 publications reporting on the richness (number of taxa) or abundance (number of individuals per taxon) of terrestrial arthropods or nematodes in relation to N addition. We found that the response of invertebrates to N enrichment is highly dependent on both species' traits and local climate. The abundance of arthropods with incomplete metamorphosis, including agricultural pest species, increased in response to N enrichment. In contrast, arthropods exhibiting complete or no metamorphosis, including pollinators and detritivores, showed a declining abundance trend with increasing N enrichment, particularly in warmer climates. These contrasting and context-dependent responses may explain why we detected no overall response of arthropod richness. For nematodes, the abundance response to N enrichment was dependent on mean annual precipitation and varied between feeding guilds. We found a declining trend in abundance with N enrichment in dry areas and an increasing trend in wet areas, with slopes differing between feeding guilds. For example, at mean levels of precipitation, bacterivore abundance showed a positive trend in response to N addition while fungivore abundance declined. We further observed an overall decline in nematode richness with N addition. These N-induced changes in invertebrate communities could have negative consequences for various ecosystem functions and services, including those contributing to human food production.

El aumento de las concentraciones de nitrógeno en el medio ambiente de forma antropogénica está afectando a la diversidad vegetal y a los ecosistemas de todo el mundo, pero aún se sabe relativamente poco sobre su impacto en comunidades de invertebrados terrestres. En este trabajo realizamos modelos meta-analíticos para explorar el efecto del enriquecimiento de nitrógeno en comunidades de invertebrados terrestres a escala global. Para ello, utilizamos una base de datos proveniente de 4.365 observaciones pareadas correspondientes a 126 publicaciones que estudiaron el efecto del enriquecimiento de nitrógeno en la riqueza (número de taxones) y/o abundancia (número de individuos por taxón) de artrópodos y/o nematodos. Encontramos que la respuesta de los invertebrados al enriquecimiento de nitrógeno depende en gran medida tanto de los rasgos de las especies como del clima local. La abundancia de artrópodos con metamorfosis incompleta, incluyendo especies que pueden crear plagas agrícolas, aumentó en respuesta al enriquecimiento de nitrógeno. Por el contrario, los artrópodos con metamorfosis completa o nula, incluidos polinizadores y detritívoros, mostraron una tendencia negativa de su abundancia con respecto al aumento de nitrógeno, especialmente en climas más cálidos. Además, no detectamos una respuesta general de la riqueza de artrópodos posiblemente por la variabilidad en respuestas observadas, tanto negativas como positivas. En el caso de los nematodos, la respuesta de sus abundancias al enriquecimiento de nitrógeno fue dependiente de la precipitación media anual y de su grupo trófico. En general, observamos una respuesta negativa de la abundancia de nematodos al enriquecimiento de nitrógeno en zonas secas y una tendencia positiva en zonas más húmedas, pero además los diferentes grupos tróficos estudiados presentaron diferentes respuestas. Por ejemplo, la abundancia de bacterívoros mostró una tendencia positiva en respuesta al enriquecimiento de nitrógeno bajo niveles medios de precipitación, mientras que la abundancia de fungívoros disminuyó. Además, observamos un descenso general de la riqueza de nematodos con más enriquecimiento de nitrógeno. Estos cambios inducidos por el nitrógeno en las comunidades de invertebrados podrían tener consecuencias negativas para diversas funciones y servicios de los ecosistemas, incluyendo aquellos que contribuyen a la producción de alimentos.

The many greenhouse gas footprints of green hydrogen.

Green hydrogen could contribute to climate change mitigation, but its greenhouse gas footprint varies with electricity source and allocation choices. Using life-cycle assessment we conclude that if electricity comes from additional renewable capacity, green hydrogen outperforms fossil-based hydrogen. In the short run, alternative uses of renewable electricity likely achieve greater emission reductions.

Evaluating expert-based habitat suitability information of terrestrial mammals with GPS-tracking data.

Aim: Macroecological studies that require habitat suitability data for many species often derive this information from expert opinion. However, expert-based information is inherently subjective and thus prone to errors. The increasing availability of GPS tracking data offers opportunities to evaluate and supplement expert-based information with detailed empirical evidence. Here, we compared expert-based habitat suitability information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with habitat suitability information derived from GPS-tracking data of 1,498 individuals from 49 mammal species. Location: Worldwide. Time period: 1998-2021. Major taxa studied: Forty-nine terrestrial mammal species. Methods: Using GPS data, we estimated two measures of habitat suitability for each individual animal: proportional habitat use (proportion of GPS locations within a habitat type), and selection ratio (habitat use relative to its availability). For each individual we then evaluated whether the GPS-based habitat suitability measures were in agreement with the IUCN data. To that end, we calculated the probability that the ranking of empirical habitat suitability measures was in agreement with IUCN's classification into suitable, marginal and unsuitable habitat types. Results: IUCN habitat suitability data were in accordance with the GPS data (> 95% probability of agreement) for 33 out of 49 species based on proportional habitat use estimates and for 25 out of 49 species based on selection ratios. In addition, 37 and 34 species had a > 50% probability of agreement based on proportional habitat use and selection ratios, respectively. Main conclusions: We show how GPS-tracking data can be used to evaluate IUCN habitat suitability data. Our findings indicate that for the majority of species included in this study, it is appropriate to use IUCN habitat suitability data in macroecological studies. Furthermore, we show that GPS-tracking data can be used to identify and prioritize species and habitat types for re-evaluation of IUCN habitat suitability data.

The impacts of linear infrastructure on terrestrial vertebrate populations: A trait-based approach.

While linear infrastructures, such as roads and power lines, are vital to human development, they may also have negative impacts on wildlife populations up to several kilometres into the surrounding environment (infrastructure-effect zones, IEZs). However, species-specific IEZs are not available for the vast majority of species, hampering global assessments of infrastructure impacts on wildlife. Here, we synthesized 253 studies worldwide to quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of infrastructure impacts on the abundance of 792 vertebrate species. We also identified the extent to which species traits, infrastructure type and habitat modulate IEZs for vertebrate species. Our results reveal contrasting responses across taxa based on the local context and species traits. Carnivorous mammals were generally more abundant in the proximity of infrastructure. In turn, medium- to large-sized non-carnivorous mammals (>1 kg) were less abundant near infrastructure across habitats, while their smaller counterparts were more abundant close to infrastructure in open habitats. Bird abundance was reduced near infrastructure with larger IEZs for non-carnivorous than for carnivorous species. Furthermore, birds experienced larger IEZs in closed (carnivores: ≈130 m, non-carnivores: >1 km) compared to open habitats (carnivores: ≈70 m, non-carnivores: ≈470 m). Reptiles were more abundant near infrastructure in closed habitats but not in open habitats where abundances were reduced within an IEZ of ≈90 m. Finally, IEZs were relatively small in amphibians (<30 m). These results indicate that infrastructure impact assessments should differentiate IEZs across species and local contexts in order to capture the variety of responses to infrastructure. Our trait-based synthetic approach can be applied in large-scale assessments of the impacts of current and future infrastructure developments across multiple species, including those for which infrastructure responses are not known from empirical data.

Global implications of crop-based bioenergy with carbon capture and storage for terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) based on purpose-grown lignocellulosic crops can provide negative CO2 emissions to mitigate climate change, but its land requirements present a threat to biodiversity. Here, we analyse the implications of crop-based BECCS for global terrestrial vertebrate species richness, considering both the land-use change (LUC) required for BECCS and the climate change prevented by BECCS. LUC impacts are determined using global-equivalent, species-area relationship-based loss factors. We find that sequestering 0.5-5 Gtonne of CO2 per year with lignocellulosic crop-based BECCS would require hundreds of Mha of land, and commit tens of terrestrial vertebrate species to extinction. Species loss per unit of negative emissions decreases with: (i) longer lifetimes of BECCS systems, (ii) less overall deployment of crop-based BECCS and (iii) optimal land allocation, that is prioritizing locations with the lowest species loss per negative emission potential, rather than minimizing overall land use or prioritizing locations with the lowest biodiversity. The consequences of prevented climate change for biodiversity are based on existing climate response relationships. Our tentative comparison shows that for crop-based BECCS considered over 30 years, LUC impacts on vertebrate species richness may outweigh the positive effects of prevented climate change. Conversely, for BECCS considered over 80 years, the positive effects of climate change mitigation on biodiversity may outweigh the negative effects of LUC. However, both effects and their interaction are highly uncertain and require further understanding, along with the analysis of additional species groups and biodiversity metrics. We conclude that factoring in biodiversity means lignocellulosic crop-based BECCS should be used early to achieve the required mitigation over longer time periods, on optimal biomass cultivation locations, and most importantly, as little as possible where conversion of natural land is involved, looking instead to sustainably grown or residual biomass-based feedstocks and alternative strategies for carbon dioxide removal.

FutureStreams, a global dataset of future streamflow and water temperature.

There is growing evidence that climate change impacts ecosystems and socio-economic activities in freshwater environments. Consistent global data of projected streamflow and water temperature are key to global impact assessments, but such a dataset is currently lacking. Here we present FutureStreams, the first global dataset of projected future streamflow and water temperature for multiple climate scenarios (up to 2099) gridded at a 5 arcminute spatial resolution (~10 km at the equator), including recent past data (1976-2005) for comparison. We generated the data using global hydrological and water temperature models (PCR-GLOBWB, DynWat) forced with climate data from five general circulation models. We included four representative concentration pathways to cover multiple future greenhouse gas emission trajectories and associated changes in climate. Our dataset includes weekly streamflow and water temperature for each year as well as a set of derived indicators that are particularly relevant from an ecological perspective. FutureStreams provides a crucial starting point for large-scale assessments of the implications of changes in streamflow and water temperature for society and freshwater ecosystems.

Human and planetary health implications of negative emissions technologies.

Meeting the 1.5 °C target may require removing up to 1,000 Gtonne CO2 by 2100 with Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs). We evaluate the impacts of Direct Air Capture and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS and BECCS), finding that removing 5.9 Gtonne/year CO2 can prevent <9·102 disability-adjusted life years per million people annually, relative to a baseline without NETs. Avoiding this health burden-similar to that of Parkinson's-can save substantial externalities (≤148 US$/tonne CO2), comparable to the NETs levelized costs. The health co-benefits of BECCS, dependent on the biomass source, can exceed those of DACCS. Although both NETs can help to operate within the climate change and ocean acidification planetary boundaries, they may lead to trade-offs between Earth-system processes. Only DACCS can avert damage to the biosphere integrity without challenging other biophysical limits (impacts ≤2% of the safe operating space). The quantified NETs co-benefits can incentivize their adoption.

Time-lagged effects of habitat fragmentation on terrestrial mammals in Madagascar.

Biodiversity is severely threatened by habitat destruction. As a consequence of habitat destruction, the remaining habitat becomes more fragmented. This results in time-lagged population extirpations in remaining fragments when these are too small to support populations in the long term. If these time-lagged effects are ignored, the long-term impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation will be underestimated. We quantified the magnitude of time-lagged effects of habitat fragmentation for 157 nonvolant terrestrial mammal species in Madagascar, one of the biodiversity hotspots with the highest rates of habitat loss and fragmentation. We refined species' geographic ranges based on habitat preferences and elevation limits and then estimated which habitat fragments were too small to support a population for at least 100 years given stochastic population fluctuations. We also evaluated whether time-lagged effects would change the threat status of species according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessment framework. We used allometric relationships to obtain the population parameters required to simulate the population dynamics of each species, and we quantified the consequences of uncertainty in these parameter estimates by repeating the analyses with a range of plausible parameter values. Based on the median outcomes, we found that for 34 species (22% of the 157 species) at least 10% of their current habitat contained unviable populations. Eight species (5%) had a higher threat status when accounting for time-lagged effects. Based on 0.95-quantile values, following a precautionary principle, for 108 species (69%) at least 10% of their habitat contained unviable populations, and 51 species (32%) had a higher threat status. Our results highlight the need to preserve continuous habitat and improve connectivity between habitat fragments. Moreover, our findings may help to identify species for which time-lagged effects are most severe and which may thus benefit the most from conservation actions.

La biodiversidad se encuentra seriamente amenazada por la destrucción del hábitat. Como consecuencia de esta destrucción, el hábitat remanente se vuelve más fragmentado. Esto resulta en extirpaciones poblacionales retardadas dentro de los fragmentos restantes cuando éstos son muy pequeños para mantener a las poblaciones a largo plazo. Si se ignoran estos efectos retardados, se subestimarán los impactos a largo plazo de la pérdida del hábitat y la fragmentación. Cuantificamos la magnitud de los efectos retardados de la fragmentación del hábitat para 157 especies de mamíferos terrestres no voladores en Madagascar, uno de los puntos calientes de biodiversidad con las tasas más elevadas de pérdida del hábitat y fragmentación. Depuramos las extensiones geográficas de las especies con base en las preferencias de hábitat y los límites de elevación y después estimamos cuáles fragmentos de hábitat eran muy pequeños para mantener una población durante al menos cien años dadas las fluctuaciones estocásticas de las poblaciones. También analizamos si los efectos retardados cambiarían el estado de amenaza de la especie de acuerdo con el programa de evaluación de la Lista Roja de la UICN. Usamos relaciones alométricas para obtener los parámetros poblacionales requeridos para simular las dinámicas poblacionales de cada especie y cuantificamos las consecuencias de la incertidumbre en estos parámetros estimados mediante análisis repetidos con una gama de valores plausibles de los parámetros. Con base en los resultados promedio, descubrimos que para 34 especies (22% de las 157 especies) al menos el 10% de su hábitat actual tiene poblaciones inviables. Ocho especies (5%) cambiaron a un estado más elevado de amenaza cuando se consideraron los efectos retardados. Con base en los valores del centil 0.95, adherido a un principio precautorio, para 108 especies (32%) al menos el 10% de su hábitat tiene poblaciones inviables y 51 especies (32%) cambiaron negativamente su estado de amenaza. Nuestros resultados resaltan la necesidad de conservar la continuidad de los hábitats y mejorar la conectividad entre los fragmentos. Además, nuestros hallazgos pueden ayudar a identificar especies para las cuales los efectos retardados son más serios y que podrían beneficiarse más con las acciones de conservación.

The role of hydrogen in heavy transport to operate within planetary boundaries.

Green hydrogen, i.e., produced from renewable resources, is attracting attention as an alternative fuel for the future of heavy road transport and long-distance driving. However, the benefits linked to zero pollution at the usage stage can be overturned when considering the upstream processes linked to the raw materials and energy requirements. To better understand the global environmental implications of fuelling heavy transport with hydrogen, we quantified the environmental impacts over the full life cycle of hydrogen use in the context of the Planetary Boundaries (PBs). The scenarios assessed cover hydrogen from biomass gasification (with and without carbon capture and storage [CCS]) and electrolysis powered by wind, solar, bioenergy with CCS, nuclear, and grid electricity. Our results show that the current diesel-based-heavy transport sector is unsustainable due to the transgression of the climate change-related PBs (exceeding standalone by two times the global climate-change budget). Hydrogen-fuelled heavy transport would reduce the global pressure on the climate change-related PBs helping the transport sector to stay within the safe operating space (i.e., below one-third of the global ecological budget in all the scenarios analysed). However, the best scenarios in terms of climate change, which are biomass-based, would shift burdens to the biosphere integrity and nitrogen flow PBs. In contrast, burden shifting in the electrolytic scenarios would be negligible, with hydrogen from wind electricity emerging as an appealing technology despite attaining higher carbon emissions than the biomass routes.

Conditional love? Co-occurrence patterns of drought-sensitive species in European grasslands are consistent with the stress-gradient hypothesis.

AIM: The stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH) postulates that species interactions shift from negative to positive with increasing abiotic stress. Interactions between species are increasingly being recognized as important drivers of species distributions, but it is still unclear whether stress-induced changes in interactions affect continental-to-global scale species distributions. Here, we tested whether associations of vascular plant species in dry grasslands in Europe follow the SGH along a climatic water deficit (CWD) gradient across the continent. LOCATION: Dry grasslands in Europe. TIME PERIOD: Present. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Vascular plants. METHODS: We built a context-dependent joint species distribution model (JSDM) to estimate the residual associations (i.e., associations that are not explained by the abiotic environment) of 161 plant species as a function of the CWD based on community data from 8,660 vegetation plots. We evaluated changes in residual associations between species for pairs and on the community level, and we compared responses for groups of species with different drought tolerances. RESULTS: We found contrasting shifts in associations for drought-sensitive and drought-tolerant species. For drought-sensitive species, 21% of the pairwise associations became more positive with increasing CWD, whereas 17% became more negative. In contrast, only 17% of the pairwise associations involving drought-tolerant species became more positive, whereas 27% became more negative in areas with a high CWD. Additionally, the incidence of positive associations increased with drought for drought-sensitive species and decreased for drought-tolerant species. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We found that associations of drought-sensitive plant species became more positive with drought, in line with the SGH. In contrast, associations of drought-tolerant species became more negative. Additionally, changes in associations of single species pairs were highly variable. Our results indicate that stress-modulated species associations might influence the distribution of species over large geographical extents, thus leading to unexpected responses under climate change through shifts in species associations.

Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk.

As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disease-diversity relationships have mainly been studied in the context of species loss, but assemblage composition and disease risk (e.g. infection prevalence in wildlife assemblages) can change without extinction. Based on the predicted distributions and abundances of 4466 mammal species, we estimated global patterns of disease risk through the calculation of the community-level basic reproductive ratio R0, an index of invasion potential, persistence, and maximum prevalence of a pathogen in a wildlife assemblage. For density-dependent diseases, we found that, in addition to tropical areas which are commonly viewed as infectious disease hotspots, northern temperate latitudes included high-risk areas. We also forecasted the effects of climate change and habitat loss from 2015 to 2035. Over this period, many local assemblages showed no net loss of species richness, but the assemblage composition (i.e. the mix of species and their abundances) changed considerably. Simultaneously, most areas experienced a decreased risk of density-dependent diseases but an increased risk of frequency-dependent diseases. We further explored the factors driving these changes in disease risk. Our results suggest that biodiversity and changes therein jointly influence disease risk. Understanding these changes and their drivers and ultimately identifying emerging infectious disease hotspots can help health officials prioritize resource distribution.

The island rule explains consistent patterns of body size evolution in terrestrial vertebrates.

Island faunas can be characterized by gigantism in small animals and dwarfism in large animals, but the extent to which this so-called 'island rule' provides a general explanation for evolutionary trajectories on islands remains contentious. Here we use a phylogenetic meta-analysis to assess patterns and drivers of body size evolution across a global sample of paired island-mainland populations of terrestrial vertebrates. We show that 'island rule' effects are widespread in mammals, birds and reptiles, but less evident in amphibians, which mostly tend towards gigantism. We also found that the magnitude of insular dwarfism and gigantism is mediated by climate as well as island size and isolation, with more pronounced effects in smaller, more remote islands for mammals and reptiles. We conclude that the island rule is pervasive across vertebrates, but that the implications for body size evolution are nuanced and depend on an array of context-dependent ecological pressures and environmental conditions.

Threats of global warming to the world's freshwater fishes.

Climate change poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, but freshwater fishes have been largely ignored in climate change assessments. Here, we assess threats of future flow and water temperature extremes to ~11,500 riverine fish species. In a 3.2 °C warmer world (no further emission cuts after current governments' pledges for 2030), 36% of the species have over half of their present-day geographic range exposed to climatic extremes beyond current levels. Threats are largest in tropical and sub-arid regions and increases in maximum water temperature are more threatening than changes in flow extremes. In comparison, 9% of the species are projected to have more than half of their present-day geographic range threatened in a 2 °C warmer world, which further reduces to 4% of the species if warming is limited to 1.5 °C. Our results highlight the need to intensify (inter)national commitments to limit global warming if freshwater biodiversity is to be safeguarded.